[Nate.]

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Not really. Think about it from PJ's prospective

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OK. Let's do that.

When PJ has an overpair or maybe AJ.......I bet the JT3 flop and got called in a few spots, one of whom is in the BB and reads 2+2, so there is a chance he is not a complete idiot. A rag hits the turn, and now this guy check/raises. Hmmm. Well, he can't have JT, because check calling this flop would be idiotic. He can't have a set, because check calling this flop would be idiotic. He MAY have something like AJ-QJ, but if he does the only hand in my range here that (a) currently beats him and (b) is rather vulnerable to that is QQ. There were lots of people in preflop, so he was getting a good price. I bet he has something like T6s, which I cannot currently beat. I could 3bet this turn with my AA and charge the tramp behind me to draw to her spades, but why would I ever do that when BB clearly has me beat? OK, I call and sure hope the board pairs the 3.


When PJ has JJ or TT....I don't what this guy has, but it doesn't beat me and now I get to go crazy on this turn with a set and this gal drawing at a flush behind me. Thank you, God.



The proper turn play for BB here is to call the 3bet. When a good card comes on the river (like a red 2), he should donk/fold.

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PokerBob--

Thanks for this post.

I agree Snowball looks like two pair, but if he's going to fold two pair to a threebet then Joker can exploit the crap out of him. I understand that exploitability is far from the end of the story, but in a spot like this it's worth thinking about.

And I don't think Joker can put Snowball so squarely on two pair, simply because Snowball can't put Joker squarely on a pair at all. This could be an opportunistic raise in a substantial pot against someone who probably doesn't have much and someone who might not. Or it could just be for value with a Q that he for some reason decided to check twice.

And, as I elaborated on before, I think this is a spot where Joker should be looking for reasons to 3-bet, not to call.

--Nate

EDIT: I see that you edited your post to include a line for BB. Glad to see we agree.