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Old 11-17-2007, 07:33 PM
RustyBrooks RustyBrooks is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 1,380
Default Re: What would be the best limit to start at?

My RNG is fine. Possibly the program is flawed in some way.

The formula I'm going on is this

N >= p * (1 - p) * (z_alpha/2) / epsilon^2

p is the EV
z_alpha is the Z value for your confidence interval.
epsilon is your acceptable margin of error

z_alpha I get as 1.6449 for confidence interval of .95
p * (1-p) is obviously .25

When I plug-n-chug I get N >= 8224
Which matches my experimental results.

Now, I admit that I am no statistician, but I consulted with one before starting to use this formula for my simulation work. I use this simulation to figure out how many iterations I need to do, to be "close enough" to the real value for simulation.

Maybe we should post this to the probability forum?
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