[BarryLyndon]

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If he's decent/good: pair+FD, or a combo draw (FD+gut-shot.) I think he has to lead with any strong hand (ie. TP/2pair/99.) KxJc;KxQc and QcTx;QcJx prob make up a pretty big part of his range here IMO.

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This was what I was thinking. If he has AK, why would he let me have a free shot at a flush? If he has a set, same thing. Both are terrible plays if he has any real holding.

So, I reasoned that his most likely holdings were hands with a single club (i.e. QQc, AxQc, KxJc, KxQc, QcTx, QcJx).

I was surprised when I called and villain showed AhKh. I guess that's what I get for assuming my opponents have a clue. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Sherman

Edit: BTW, the reason I bet is pretty obvious. If he has an underpair and 1 club, I can't give him a free look at the turn either.

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Yeah, the reason for betting is obvious, but is it obviously the best move?

The pot is ~ 1/7th your stack, which is still very healthy after your flat call. When you bet, you're doing it because you don't want to give a free club or give a free card to an underpair:

1. An underpair has a 4% chance of getting there on each street. Honestly, on this board, who cares. Obv., on another board, you care, but this one?

2. A club has a 20% chance of getting there, but chances are, if you lead, two clubs (Qc and Jc) come over the top and you're taken off the best hand (unless you call, which is bad, IMO). Other hands RR too, AK/A9, sets, but as has happened, that will leave you with a big "WTF" situation.

3. I can't imagine you looking to win a big pot here on this board.

4. If he has 9c or 8c or something, a 4th club will give him the best hand, but, he may not even bet anyway because he's afraid, and you lose nothing.

5. 80% of the time, you will see the turn with only one card to go now and can seriously consider a float. His leading range will widen considerably. And you still exercise some pot control.

6. If he does not have the goods, many times he slows down on the river + many cards serve as scare cards for him OOP and can lead you to a cheaper showdown with the best hand a decent chunk of the time.

When you bet 2/3rds the pot here, you build up to 5K, thereby making the pot 1/3rd of your stack. An RR here is a nightmare. IMO, an RR here is a nightmare by far more than seeing a 4th club in position on a wet board where your opponent may/may not be making a mistake here by checking.

Barry
PS: I realize this is late stage play, so you feel that betting the flop here is imperative. I just think that some boards / positions serve for different actions, even if late, and this is one of them.