[WarhammerIIC]

[ QUOTE ]
Can you please explain to a limidonk, who is struggling with bet sizes, the bluffing example on p.26?

Why has a $15 bet to be 66.25% more successful to be superior to a $2 bet that takes down the $25-pot half of the time? I don't get the number.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's based on EV (the example is extreme, as the authors say).

Assuming you wouldn't win the pot if they called your bluff, you will win $25 half the time with a $2 bluff, and lose $2 half the time.

0.5($25) + 0.5(-$2) = 12.5 - 1 = $11.5 EV with $2 bet.

With the $15 bet, you need to win 66.25% of the time to get the same EV (i.e. because you are losing more when they call).

0.6625($25) + 0.3375(-$15) = 16.5625 - 5.0625 = $11.5 EV with $15 bet.


The example assumes that they're going to fold the same hands (i.e. nothing hands) to a $2 bet that they would to a $15 bet.