[iggymcfly]

I kinda feel like I have too much analysis to clutter up a community thread, at least on the first game, so I decided to make my own thread this week despite having an absolutely terrible record in Week 3.

YTD: 16-22-1, -3.845 units


Oregon -16.5 at Stanford (Risk 2u to win 1.96u)
Feel a little nervous betting 2 units on the nationally ranked road dog that's facing the perennial loser who's projected to be improved this year. Just screams "square side". My other main concern is that Oregon will likely be overlooking Stanford somewhat in preparation for one of their biggest games of the year against Cal.

However, I still feel Oregon's undervalued here. They had a really fluky bad year last season where they outgained their opponents by more than anyone in the conference and still finished with a losing record coming off a 10-1 season and aren't getting recognition as fast as they should be.

They battered Michigan on the road by 32 points (who is still probably one of the 25 best teams in the country in all honesty) and then led a very good Fresno State team 42-14 at the half en route to a 52-21 win. Their other win wasn't quite as impressive, but they still covered the spread comfortably that game, beating Houston by 21. I have the Ducks as the #5 team in the country. (No computer numbers there, just personal analysis.)

Also, the matchups are wildly favorable for Oregon. Stanford is a passing team (89 pass att vs. 74 rush att) and will be passing even more when trailing against Oregon. Meanwhile, Oregon's defensive strength is their passing D as they rank 33rd in pass efficiency D compared to 77th in rushing defense. On the other side of the ball, Oregon much prefers to run (64 pass att vs. 147 rush att) and goes up against a rush defense that gave up 338 yards on the ground to UCLA. If you're looking for a baseline without matchups, Sagarin says UO should be favored by 17 on the road (a half point off the actual line).

Finally, UCLA is a really close comparison for Stanford as they are a similar team to Oregon (if not quite as good) and beat Stanford on the road by 28 as a 17 point favorite. The other close comparison is that last year, the Ducks beat Stanford by 38 at home. All things considered, without the "lookahead game" factor, I'd like the Ducks by 28 here. With that, I'll take off a TD, but I still think UO should be favored by ~21. A four and a half point difference crossing 3 key numbers seems to be pretty big so I like UO for 2 units.