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Old 12-02-2007, 03:33 AM
Gap23Razor Gap23Razor is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: lost in though
Posts: 637
Default Re: SB Special: value bet or check raise?

bet the river...i would rather be sure to get one bet in rather than risk a check behind...the 3rd flush card falling could kill action...CO likely has SB on a flush draw and could be fearful of check-raise...i would bet out, figuring my 2 flush cards cripple chances sb is on flush draw...i think its more likely SB has middle or bottom pair or straight draw...anyway, to me its worth a bet on river, if needed call a raise

on flop the bet out is good, i want to build pot plus when i have low flush draw i figure i have the equivalent of 7 clean outs...with 7 clean i figure i have around 30% chance of winning, and with 3 others i think i have an overlay, also sb has shown no strength so perhaps i am even stronger than 30%...i'd like to give those with middling hands such as gut shot or middle pair a headache...if i have two callers my overlay isn't there, but i do have others more likely to call big bets on the turn or river if my flush comes in--pot will be bigger---if only 1 caller i gain bluff equity for bets on turn/river...anyway its a small bet round so i don't mind not making bets the are strickly +ev here

on the turn my action is more read dependant--are the villains loose and how will they react to your 2 barrel? i don't see a bet on the turn being justified as +ev for the turn bet amount only - 7 clean flush outs plus 4 more for a straight gives 11 outs, only 23-24% chance of improving to win with only 2 other players...given the -ev of the bet on the turn, i would need to factor in fold equity/implied odds offered by a river bet if we make our hand/and likely action of villains...if villains raise back our implied odds get messed up

anyway, that's how i play if not attempting to change up

ps...sorry if this seems a little jumbled and doesn't flow smooth...i wrote this response on my laptop while laying on my couch watching football
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