Re: 200nl: AK never hits a pr when I 3 bet.
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How often does this have to work to be +Ev anyway? Even if it was a break even play I owuld still want to make it because it would make me $ later.
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If we give him a range to call your preflop 3bet and bet the flop of 22+, AQs+, AQo+, KQs and assume he calls with 33+ only. This equates to betting 8.7% of hands and calling with 5.4% - so he calls 62% of the time you push.
If called, you are 22% vs. his calling range.
EV = (0.38 x 110) + (0.62 ((0.22 x 235) + (0.78 x -160)))= -$3
If we change his 3bet calling range to 10% instead of 8.6% and his push calling range to 33-66, 99+ (ie he folds 77 & 88), this turns the push into a +$6 play.
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