Re: Bayes Theorem, and epdaws where have you gone?????
Bayes Theorem:
P(A|B)=[P(B|A)*P(A)]/[P(B|A)*P(A)+P(B|Ac)*P(Ac)]
where Ac is the compliment of A (everything not in A).
How is this potentially useful?
Let B be a particular action by a villain (say crai on the turn) and let A be a hand holding (say a flush). You would like to know the probability that the villain holds hand A given the action B. The theorem says you can find this probability if you know the likelihood that villain will take action B given that he holds hand A, the likelihood that he will take action B given that he does not hold A (he holds Ac), and the unconditional likelihoods that he holds hand A (and thus the likelihood that he holds Ac as well as A and Ac are compliments).
How is this really useful?
It isn't. IMO trying to actually apply Bayes Theorem to the point of doing calculations whilst playing is silly, but when you are making a read that takes into account the likelihood of a villain taking a particular action given different holdings you are doing a back of the envelope Bayes Theorem calculation.
Lucky
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