[quickfetus]

Ok, let me try to explain a general thought process about bad live players.

On 2+2, we're very used to the idea of thinking about a hand in multiple ways. I.e, villain could call flop partially for showdown value, partially to take pot away if I check the turn. However, I haven't seen evidence that most bad players think this way. Usually, people think about a hand in only one way. If they have a strong hand, they play it for value. If they have a gutshot, they may call a big raise to spike their card, but are far less likely to call the flop as a float with the intention of betting the turn when checked to.

In this case, I think that if villain is playing a small pair, he is in calldown mode, and consequently highly unlikely to bet the turn (thereby increasing the size of a pot he was only aiming to calldown in in the first place). Also keep in mind that I said I have not yet seen villain out of line when raising postflop.