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Old 11-16-2007, 02:30 PM
rush66 rush66 is offline
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Join Date: May 2006
Location: Back home in CLEVELAND
Posts: 874
Default Re: What do line movements tell us?

I can give what I think in general and then to some of these specifically. If a line moves from -9 to -9.5 for example it could just be that the books are getting to much action on the line, whether that be too much money or just too many wagers. I think its usually to much money. I think that is the case with NE and Pitt, they just feel more comfortable with the amount they are receiving at 16 rather than 15.5, though I dont know how much of a difference there really is. Now, when a line moves and then moves back it can mean several things, I think. Perhaps they didnt like the exposure they were getting at -10 and moved up to 10.5 but then some sharp hit 10.5 hard and theyd rather have him not on the game and except the exposure. That may be the case on KC/Indy. On Phi, I could be the book just testing the waters. If they think they can keep the same amount of action from the public at 10.5 or if its ok to move there without a sharp hitting it. If you see this move back down within a few minutes, it means someone hit it and the line may actually end up dropping below 10. As far as the shifting goes on Tenn, im not too sure. The wagering on this game looks pretty even so it could be them just trying to find the line that would get them even action. No clue though honestly.

NO/Hou is interesting to me. Hou is the sharp play for sure this week. Public is on NO and the line is steaming in houston's favor. If it kept steaming up to 2 or 3, that would mean the sharps are still crusing it. However, the fact that it moved back tells me that even though the majority of the sharps are on Hou, someone out there is putting a decent amount of money on NO at +2. I am actually pretty big on Hou, but I may hedge a little because of this.

Im sure others will chime in. This is just what I think even though I could be completely wrong, I hope it helps a little.
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