Re: NLTRN $11: facing donkbet on A-high flop with KK
[ QUOTE ]
you only have to be successful 44.44% of the time to show a profit
[/ QUOTE ]
Successful at what? Folding out an ace?
I would guess you're going to get any ace to fold exactly 0% of the time by minraising. And that includes A2. Maybe *some* opponents are going to fold an ace *sometimes* to a minraise (or any raise, for that matter, most people seem more than happy to get it in here with A2 or A3), but nowhere near 44%.
If "success" is just having the best hand, then as other people have pointed out (and you seem to have agreed), minraising is the wrong move here. Raising does get a little more value from some hands we're beating, but loses value against a whole lot more (because they'll just fold rather than bet again on the turn), and practically never folds out a hand that's beating us.
|