Re: Belmont Stakes
[ QUOTE ]
Calling experienced horse players...
I am intrigued by the pick-4. In that it could provide a huge payoff again. My question is do you think Too Much Bling is a single in the Woody Stephens at 7 furlongs? His speed to the 1/2 looks devastating and Garret Gomez is 3-for-3 on board. It also fun to watch grey horses win. And Baffert sounds confident.
The only horse that scares be a bit in the final furlong is Keyed Entry, mostly because of Pletcher. Again I just think much of this field will be so far behind by the half they will have no chance.
I would like to single this race and go very deep in the other three hoping for bombers...
[/ QUOTE ]
5. Keyed Entry - Solid horse dropping back to his wheel house with Plether at the helm is a little scary.
7. Dontfearthereaper is from my friends' stable and I know Rick Dutrow loves him. He came from off a hot pace last time with a game finish that got close. Last work was visually impressive and may be sitting on a big race. I shot an email to a guy at the stable to see what he thinks but I think even with a big race he won't get past TMB.
Songster and Fab Strike don't scare me but they are solid enough to have a shot. This is fab strike's first race at this distance and he has a pretty decent distance Tomlinson if you think that matters (see above debate).
Basically TMB is a solid favorite here and I love keying horses in 7F races as they tend to go to the specialists. IMO there are two big problems with this play. The first and biggest is the Manhattan, I see this as a chalk fest so going deep in this race is spewing $$. The second is that there are very few bombs in the Belmont that have a shot. IMO the risk/reward of this particular Pick 4 kinda sucks especially if you are planning on going pretty deep as you stated.
EDIT: Just got a reply to my email, Dontfearthereaper will be scratched.
|