Re: Three barrels?
I don't think the flop raise is that bad if we believe he's folding a pocket pair smaller than the board.
Assuming 44+,A6s+,ATo+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs (probably wider) he'll have 44-99 about 20% of the time.
Our hot-and-cold equity in this flop is 30%, lets assume we win 25% of the time and 0BB implied odds (due to flop 3-bets with better hands obviously, he will rarely try to c/r the turn wich will be a disaster), and he's folding 44-99 to a flop raise + turn bet.
The pot will be 4BB (discounting 0,5BB rake) and we invest 2BB in our line. I assume he always peel the flop.
EV = 0,20*4BB + 0,80*(0.25*4BB + 0.75*(-2BB)) = 0.80 - 0.40 = 0.40BB
Enough overlay for our semibluff IMO, but if conditions change it could be a close play (if I made the math correctly :P)
I wouldn't 3-barrel the river. If we assume he has TT+,A6s+,A9o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs (taking out 44-99)we have 0% equity and I don't think he's folding weak pairs enough. I'll give up.
P.S. Yeah, first post. Long time lurker [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
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