[Lloyd]

For those who say "you've been active", read the rest of his statement. Since the villain got to the table he's shown down good hands, as has the villain.

So let's say the villain has AA-TT, AK, AQs. Let's also say that he'll fold TT and JJ half the time and AQs all the time if the hero re-raises pre-flop.

So there are a total of 36 hands the villain could have and he's going to fold 9 of them (half of TT/JJ and AQs). So the hero will win pre-flop 25% of the time. The rest of the time the hero is a 40/60 dog.

25% villain folds = Hero has 19,808
19,808 * .25 = 4,952

75% villain calls
40% hero wins = Hero has 27,459
27,459 * .40 = 10,984
60% hero loses = Hero has 289
289 * .6 = 173
Expected Stack When Hero is Called = 11,157 * .75 = 8,368

Expected stack if Hero pushes = 4,952 + 8,368 = 13,320

If hero folds, his stack is 11,574. So, looks like pushing is superior with those assumptions.

But let's take away AQs and TT from his range. After all, we're talking about a situation where the villain is up against an EP raiser who can bust him, and the villain is a good player.

So now there are a total of 27 total combinations the villain could have. Let's say he folds JJ half the time and calls with everything else. So he's calling 89% of the time and folding 11% of the time. When the hero is called he's still a 40/60 dog.

11% villain folds = Hero has 19,808
19,808 * .11 = 2,179

89% villain calls
40% hero wins = Hero has 27,459
27,459 * .40 = 10,984
60% hero loses = Hero has 289
289 * .6 = 173
Expected Stack When Hero is Called = 11,157 * .89 = 9,930

Expected stack if Hero pushes = 2,179 + 9,930 = 12,109. That's just a hair more than if the hero folds.

So all things considered, it does look like a pre-flop push might be the best play. I still don't think it's a clear cut decision as I think his range is closer to AA-JJ, AK than AA-TT, AK-AQs.

Also, I think raising 2.5 BBs at this stage might make some (maybe not this) decisions easier when the stack sizes are in this awkward 20 BB range.