Re: 50NL: I get taken to valuetown without a whimper
Thanks for responses, but I am not convinced by the prevailing arguments.
Villain's range is all over this flop: {AK, AQ, KQ, TJ, KJ, K9, Q9, QQ, KK, 99}. Ok, that's not all a 51/21's range, but he is UTG and I think those hands are a significant part of it. If I want to raise, it is a PSB of around $18...why would do I want to make that kind of committment with 3rd pair in a raised pot? And as Bozzer says, I am essentially turning my hand into a bluff (or perhaps a semi bluff w/outs)
Also, given that I am almost getting direct drawing odds on flop, and that a raise folds the parts of his range I am beating, namely, {22-88, air}, and I can't be sure of my FE even against a Q as he may decide to draw with that hand, I'm really not convinced any other line is more EV than the one hero took.
I think this hand might look more ugly than it actually is in EV terms.
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