Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
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I count about 15-20 flush hands that can be discounted to varying degrees (conservative estimate would be 50% on average). Only 6 combos of A9. seems like an easy call.
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Hi vma,
How much do you discount pair+flush draw in a players range when you are told that he likes to lag it up postflop? Note that this requires CO to play his made hand + big draw passively both multiway (the first time he acts) and heads up (the 2nd time he acts).
Also... 15-20? That seems high. Where are you finding all these combos?
AK, AJ, AT, A8, A7, A6, A4, A3, K5, 75, 65, 54, 53...
AK with no preflop raise? Highly unlikely.
A4, A3, 54, 53 just check-call turn with pair + flush + straight draw? From a lag? Seems pretty rare.
That just leaves AJ AT A8 A7, where we have him check-calling top pair + flush draw. I don't see players that like to give action playing these hands passively.
K5c and 65c still are pair + flush draw, and while a sane player should check-call given the strength of our turn bet, players that like to lag it up postflop probably won't.
Personally, A9 looks like the heart of his range.
-eric
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