Re: How hard did he hit? AQs
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passive and really tight on the flop, then the surviving hands LAG it up somewhat on the big streets. HU to the river for 8.5 BB.
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Given this description, his river check-raising hand range should be dominated by A9. 3-bet.
Note that a more passive player could show you Ax of clubs, but a player who likes to lag it up on the turn would surely raise top pair + flush draw.
There are 6 combinations of A9 out. AKc and A5c are both out, due to the lack of preflop raise and turn raise. A3c and A4c would be virtual locks for a raise from this kind of player, given top pair + flush + gutshot straight draw.
That leaves only A6c, A7c, A8c, ATc, and AJc. Since we are discounting these due to the laggy nature of our opponent, but can't discount A9 at all, I think you should 3-bet.
It's close enough though that just calling is not a big mistake.
good luck.
Eric
-Eric
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