Re: Variance Problem
phzon is correct.
this is backed by the data. compare the frequencies of a 10+ downswing and a 25+ downswing with the two different winningrates huge difference
i also want to point out that this is nowhere close to accurate. your winningrate will not be stable variance will not be the same jadajadajada...
its just supposed to give a "feel" for what kind of variance will happen to you.
this however has not really that much practical implications for ONE player because it just gets unlikelier to get very big downswings given a winrate, but never impossible...
its always hard to tell if your downswings happen because of bad play or because of variance nevertheless. basicly the only thing my analysis proofes is that you will suffer 10+ swings quite frequently even beeing a very good player.
and the chance of beeing a very good player if a 40+ swing happens to ya is also pretty small.
but there is no "easy formula" or something, there are just too many factors
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