Re: Variance Problem
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A quick approximation of Paxinor's thread is to figure, in BB, the downswing ur interested (2000), divide by STDDEV/1000 (147BB), and square the result, which will approximate k number of hands.
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I didn't read through that thread, but that formula is clearly wrong in two ways.
First, the gaps between downswings of size at least x should grow exponentially with x, not quadratically.
Second, you never used the win rate, which is crucial. Large downswings are much more common for players with lower win rates.
By the way, there was no dependence on the value 1000 in that formula. If you use a period n^2 times as long, you multiply the standard deviation per period by n, so you would multiply by n^2/n^2. Why use 1000 instead of the more standard 100?
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