Re: 400NL - Gettin\' saucy
How about viewing this as an algebra problem. Let x be the % of time you have trips or a boat in this spot, and let y be the % of time you fire a second bullet as a bluff on the river.
If he decides to call you down all the way, his EV is:
x(-550) + y(675) + (1-x-y)(275)
If he decides to call on the turn and fold to a bet on the river, his EV is:
(x+y)(-150) + (1-x-y)(275)
You need to find an x and y such that both of these come out negative. I whipped those formulas up really quickly and the details may be off, but you get the idea.
I guess you have to account for the possibility of him using a mixed strategy too, but this is too much math for me right now.
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