[MacGuyV]

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I'm probably missing something huge, but these two teams are more evenly matched then the book is giving them credit for. I hate the fact that money is on GB and the line moved to 7, and I'll probably end up regretting it, but the numbers say Dallas should be 4-5 point favorites here.

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I think that the line is actually pretty accurate, although I would put it more at Green Bay +5 or +6 (which I think it opened at?). I think Dallas is about a field goal better on a neutral field. I think Green Bay is quite good, but overrated, they have luckboxed their way into several wins, has an easier schedule, and lost to an awful Bears team. Favre and the offense are obviously putting up ridiculous numbers, but then again so is Romo and Dallas. Dallas meanwhile has convincingly defeated everyone except the Pats, who they put up a pretty good showing against, and the Redskins in a rivalry game which is always close, against a tougher schedule. Green Bay also is heavily injured, nd will likely be missing several starters, including possibly Woodson. Without Woodson, I see little chance of them being able to cover TO. On top of that, Green Bay is awful at covering TEs, and Witten should have a monster game. Likely staying away from this, and also pretty confused why apparently the public is on Green Bay (according to espn.com poll obv) when Dallas would seem like the BSP favorite here.


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I didn't see the Eagles game in Week 1, but from everything I've seen/heard/read that was a lucky win.

Outside of that the luckbox theme w/ GB seems exaggerated to me. How were they any more lucky in Denver than they were unlucky vs. Chicago? They fumbled twice fairly deep in Bears territory & were on the wrong end of every questionable call.
Even if they could easily be 7-3, how many NFC teams go into NYG, Minnesota, Detroit on Thxgiving and dominate most of the game? Denver/KC isn't an easy back-to-back 6 day road trip either.
Plus the Cowboys homefield is very 'meh' - certainly not worth more than the usual 3 imo.