Re: A priori odds against Miami winning by exactly 1 point?
Depends on how often you figure Miami wins...
At 50% Miami wins by 1 point approximately 2.14% of the time.
At 40% Miami wins by 1 point exactly 1.71% of the time.
Just multiply how often you expect Miami to win by 4.27% (0.0427) and then subtract this from 100%
OK, so I was close the first time. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
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