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Old 09-17-2007, 04:21 PM
I dunno I dunno is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Waiting for a hit and run
Posts: 494
Default Re: $10/$20 LO8 hand from EP

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on another note, i've been opening from the cutoff with solid high hands like QJTTss if I think the blinds are playing even remotely tight. Is this standard, or am I trying to play too fancy?

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I've always wondered how much money one can expect to win on a blind steal with a hand like this.

I'm not talking in terms of hitting a set, flopping straights and so on, but how much money you can expect to win once somebody chooses to defend their blind.

I'd imagine probably not as much as what people think considering that most people will defend with low oriented hands more than high hands. So even when you smack the flop you might not get much out of it on average. Plus you could fall victim to reverse implied odds or make an incorrect fold when you a flop a flush with two low cards, flop a set on a two-toned wheel draw board, and etc.

I'm not debating whether you should be occasionally raising these hands, I'm really just interested in the expectation after one or both of the blinds choose to defend. It's obviously dependant on the opposition, so the only way I can see to really quantify it would be to study a huge sample of hands.
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