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Old 01-09-2007, 07:28 PM
UtzChips UtzChips is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 800
Default Re: Fold this AK PF?

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AQs, not AQ. You can do the math with AQ, that's just not what I did. There are only 3 possible holdings of AQs.

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According to Pokerstove, AK v. TT+,AK:
Wins 28.13 Loses 45.85% Draws 13.01%

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You need to be precise in PokerStove. What you ran is NOT the assumptions I gave. First of all, he doesn't have AK. He has AcKd. When he just put in AK it includes AKs as a possibility which will improve his chances. You're also putting in TT and JJ - all of the possibilities. If we say he'll fold TT/JJ half the time then you obviously can only use 3 of the 6 possible holdings for each of those hands.

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Lloyd,

How can you put in Hero's exact hand when you don't know Villian's? I did put in AKo, so hero was not given the advantage of being suited.
By not specifying the suits of Hero's hand, since we don't know the suits of Villian's, I am allowing for all possible combinations of suits between the two players, while keeping Hero's AK unsuited.

I would think you would also analyze with all possible pairs, as the suits make a difference. We "removed" 1/2 the pairs to determine how often Hero sees a Flop, however, when it comes to analyzing win% against the pairs I would think once again, that you have to analyze all possible suits. Pokerstove is analyzing all possibilities.

AKo v. TT+,AQs,AKo,AKs
wins 30.56%
Loses 44.82%
Draws 12.31%

If you run it with AcKd v. TT+AQs you get the same stats.
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