[Sunny Mehta]

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I do think they will outperform their Pythag expectations, though - that's Nolan and DiPietro.

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I would not be surprised if they did either, but that's IF they do it with stellar defense and goaltending - which they really haven't this year (DiPietro hasn't been very good).

I will say this - Pythag expectations get a little haywire in hockey, mostly 'cause of this ridiculous overtime system. (I.e. - some games featuring 3 total points being awarded, instead of 2.) In theory, a team that tied every game in regulation would end up being WAY better than their expected .500 w% due to OT/SO. (Even if they had a worse than average chance of winning in OT/SO, say 40 percent, that projects to like a 115pt season!) Take a look at the Devils last season - way outperformed their goal diff due to so many OT/SO wins.

So that's the first thing - if we assume a very defensive low-scoring team is more likely to be tied after regulation, that's a big benefit to them points-wise. Particularly if they have a good goaltender who will expect to fare well in a shootout. (See the Rangers this year - I almost guarantee they'll outperform their Pythag.)

The other thing is that defensive teams in general sometimes outperform their goal diff even just in regulation. This is definitely contentious, but I have two possible explanations:

1. Technically, a team that wins 2-1 has won by a bigger "margin" than a team who wins 6-5. (I.e. - The former team has won by 100 percent whereas the latter only by 20 percent.)

2. Teams that are low in both goals for and goals against are subject to more variance than a team with a higher differential. (<-- This is probably what's really going on.)