Re: Determining the probability that you\'re a winning player
If you want to perform that type of Bayesian update, you want to use the density function of the normal distribution. Express the results as x standard deviations above the mean. The density is roughly
constant * e^-(x^2)/2.
The constant, 1/sqrt(2 Pi), doesn't matter for this type of calculation.
For example, the density at 2 standard deviations away from the observed result is e^-2 times the density at 0 standard deviations away from the observed results, so the observations would favor the latter by a factor of e^2 ~ 7.
|