Heisman Prop Bet
MyTurn, Iggy, Bills, Najdorf, etal.... help needed [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].
A guy who works for me wants to bet his paycheck this week (it's about 1.5k, so sizeable enough for me to take this somewhat seriously) on the Heisman.
I get 8 guys, he gets the field, I have to give him 2:1 odds. So... if one of my 8 wins it, then in a few months I have to send ~3k his way, and if someone else wins, I have to send 0 his way. I get to hold back his check this week for the bet, and there's no real credit risk here or anything on either side (we're good friends, and besides... I'm holding the money).
I think that this bet is clearly +EV for me, though his repeated "it's too early... it's a crazy year... no real frontrunner yet..." comments are making me want to really optimize this thing.
Here's where I'm leaning now:
Tebow - cuz he's the man
Woodson
McFadden
Bradford - cuz Okla may win it all
Booty
Matt Ryan - good darkhorse? potential BCS bowl team?
Mike Hart
DeSean Jackson
This has got to be +EV for me, right? Anyone else you'd throw in, and anyone you'd take out?
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