[AllTheCheese]

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If he is willing to call a c/r on the river, why is he checking behind on the turn?


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If he's willing to call a bet on the river (i.e. if he has JJ+), why is he checking behind the turn? People often PC a paired board with middle overpairs.

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Do you think this opponent sees himself as trapping with QQ or JJ?


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No. It's not trapping to check-behind the turn and bet the river. If we check turn and river, he's going to be reasonably sure his hand is best and that we might call with worse, wherease us checking turn only doesn't assure him that his hand is best and doesn't assure him that we'll call with worse.

For example, suppose you have AK and the flop comes K 5 4 two diammonds. Villain checks and you bet and he calls. Turn comes 9 of diamonds. He checks and you check behind. River comes 6 of clubs. He checks. Don't you value bet? You weren't trapping with top pair, you just weren't sure.

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wouldnt our c/r be viewed as a very strong hand?


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Yes and no. It's viewed as a nuts or nothing type play. Villain will suspect we have TT or we have like a weak pair that we're turning into a bluff. Given how much he's committed at that point, he might decide to call with his Queens, it's not a guarantee but it's a possibility. Wherease if we just bet the river, it's almost certain that he will not raise us.

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Yes, I agree checking the river induces some bluffing. But wouldnt a river bet induce a bluff over the top at times too, given our check on the turn?


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Only very very rarely in my experience

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Weigh that against the loss of money we dont get from Q-Q and J-J when they check behind on the river. Its guess work for which line maximizes profits, i just hate leaving it up to an opponent in position to bet my hand for me, especially if he hasnt shown much aggression in the hand. He either isnt confident in his hand strength, or views himself as trapping. Both suggest we lead the river for a value bet.


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These are all good points. I don't think an opponent who is this aggressive checks behind QQ though. There are like three times as many AK combos as Jacks combos. So if he bluffs 1/3 of the time on the river, we make up the lost value. And this is assuming he never calls a check-raise when he would have otherwise just flat-called a bet.

Sorry for the essay [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]