[fnord_too]

At the very worst it was a coin flip with no further information. With further information (i.e. that scott was there for the other team and he and tokyo were the only two players) it is exactly a coin flip. If both choose the same, no impact, if they choose differently whichever happens to choose correctly wins. QE [censored] D

Also zurvan, saying something is +EV in the long run means it is +EV each and every time. You are confusing EV of a single (possibly repeating) opportunity with evaluation of multiple opportunities. In your going broke example, if that was the only investment you could make, then you should take that investment with any money you have dedicated to investing.