[Willd]

Your EV calc is fairly close but you seem have mixed up final stack and what you win/lose, rather than working only with final stack sizes or only with net won/lost on hand. Assuming you have him covered then the EV calc should be:

.78*9700 + .22*.31*32900 - .21*.69*30000 = 5535

This ignores the possibility of blinds coming in behind you but based on your assumptions it is probably still easily +ev since they won't pick up monsters very often. Whether or not your assumptions are accurate is another matter, since raising 19% isn't particularly nitty and he will be getting ~1.6-1 to call your raise because he raised so much in the first place, meaning he might call a little looser than the range you assigned as well.