Re: the proof is in the pudding
Rereading this, the only thing I can think is maybe cat just doesn't get what is being offered.
They're not asking to book your bets.
They're offering a straight up challenge wager, a 10k fight if you will.
You will make your normal bets for the week and record your picks on the record. (there are some minor stipulations of course to ensure you are actually picking reasonable lines and not something completely unavailable).
If at the end of 100 picks you have won 60 or more, you will win the 15k bet against you.
If at the end of 100 picks you have won 59 or less, you will lose the 10k you bet.
You still make your own bets wherever you're currently making them, and profit from them.
If you are really a 60% capper than this is an opportunity to gain significant edge, as being offered 3:2 on a 60% occurrence -- a "true line" for you picking 60/100 would be -150 if you're a 60% capper, but you're being offered +150 which has to be more +EV than what you see in a regular bet unless you're really picking at about 80% ATS.
I do acknowledge I guess that if you don't trust me as the mod to hold the money, than you'd probably want to pay an official escrow service. Many of these exist (just look at the ones trusted by eBay), and even with the escrow fees you're looking at a massively +EV bet if you truly believe you are a 60% capper.
If you beleive you're a 55% capper you're still looking at significantly +EV: the true line for you picking 55/100 would be -122 if that were true.
By laying 3:2, they're actually saying that you're a 40% handicapper. At anything above 40% this bet is +EV for you. The farther above your confidence level, the more +EV you are.
But you know all that, right?
Anyways -- I'm not trying to mock you. I try to be welcoming to all in modding this forum, that's my role here. I'm just trying to explain how +EV this bet would be for you if you truly are the 60% capper you feel your 19-pick record displays that you are.
-P
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