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Old 09-27-2007, 04:22 PM
Sunny Mehta Sunny Mehta is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: coaching poker and writing \"Professional No-Limit Hold\'em\" for Two Plus Two Publishing with Matt Flynn and Ed Miller
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Default Re: PNL Study Group Day 8: The REM Process - \"Equity\", \"Maximize\", \"RI

[ QUOTE ]
A hypothetical hand to illustrate my point is this (let's make it $1/$2 unraked with $150 effective stacks just to make it easy):

Hero is Button and has Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and raises to $8. Villain (BB) is a player of the type I see a lot in $25NL/$50NL who sees almost every flop, has next to no aggression on the flop and turn, but very high aggression on the river. He calls the raise, as he usually does.

On the flop, the pot is $17 and the flop comes T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Villain checks, Hero bets $14, Villain calls. There is a possible straight on board and villain is so passive that pretty much the only thing he will raise is a straight. The issue is that while he is afraid to bet without the nuts, he isn't willing to let almost any of his made hands or pretty draws go either. This means that his calling range here is any ten, any eights or sixes with an overcard kicker, any OESD or FD, T8, T6, 86, TT, 88, 66. QQ+ would have gotten 3-bet preflop, but AK or JJ would get smooth-called by this guy. We'll assume that he would let unimproved overcards go on this flop.

Turn comes Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and the pot is currently $45. Villain checks. The queen gives us top two pair which is great since while villain will probably give up a pair of eights or pair of sixes to a bet, He will call with any top pair or worse two pair. The problem is that the queen completes a possible straight draw for villain, and the fact that it also completes the flush draw means that villain is unlikely to bet the straight if he has it. The low aggression on the turn also means that if villain caught a flush, I often won't see a bet on the turn but will see a big bet on the river. Here is where I get frustrated with these guys. My default action here is to check behind and call anything up to a pot size bet on the river. This keeps the pot from getting to big when I'm behind, but I think that I lose a lot of value on my TP or two pair hands because I become afraid of being behind on any remotely scary board. I don't even want to think about how nasty hands like this are when I'm OOP.

Basically, I realize that you really can't put loose calling stations on a narrow range, and on any dry board I basically treat TPGK like the nuts. The problem is that on hands like this I would like to squeeze every last chip possible out of them because they would call a big bet on the turn and get all-in on the river with worse two pairs, and any top pair/overpair. Unfortunately far too many of the times that I've tried this I get shown a hand that beats me and lose a stack.

So, what are your viewpoints on this?

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Hi Sean,

Preflop is fine if you will steal often enough, although raising a little less or a little more can also be considered depending on how much fold equity each extra bb will yield you.

Flop, I like your bet and your analysis, but I find it hard to believe that he won't raise strong non-straight hands like sets and top two.

Turn, checking makes no sense because it sounds like you will not have a tough decision if he raises you. Ditto if he jams the river. It sounds like you're saying that he will play very passively with worse hands, and aggressively only with better hands. Players like that are cash cows to play against because the hand reading becomes a cinch. Things you need to remember in terms of how to exploit them is:

1) Be willing to fold seemingly strong hands like two pair on a flush board, etc when they make a big move.

2) Be willing to value bet them thin on the river if they've been passive and you are likely ahead - that means putting in another bet (even if only half-pot etc.) with your overpair or strong TPTK instead of checking behind.

3) Be willing to make the occasional big bluff if the stack/pot ratio gives you good leverage to put them to a stack decision - but be careful to do it only when you're pretty sure they'll fold - i.e. an obvious and very scary card comes, NOT when a kind of unpleasant card comes and you aren't sure they'll fold.

-S
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