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Old 05-18-2007, 02:07 PM
Slim Pickens Slim Pickens is offline
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Default Re: Exploiting being CL: Short-handed high blinds Reshoves w/o Fold Eq

OK, so I did a little math on your first scenario and got an unsurprising result. It's not terribly important exactly what ranges and such I used because that's small compared to the point I'm going to make.

blinds 200/400
CO (t1400)
Hero (t7000)
SB (t2550)
BB (t2550)

Preflop: <font color="red">CO raises all-in t1400</font>, Hero ???

Folding leaves Hero at 37.67% if it folds around, and I'll estimate that happens 80% of the time. The blinds should call more than that, but they typically don't. In any case, that can only raise your equity for folding. UTG getting called by the BB the other 20% of the time and having BB be a 60/40 favorite leaves your overall prize pool equity at 37.82%.

Assuming the blinds never call if you push, and you're a 55/45 underdog to CO's range, the push breaks about even. It hurts you when the blinds start calling, but that's not the point. We can argue that this is a breakeven spot at best, so there has to be some future considerations.

Tell me how much better it is to have the stacks this way if you push and lose:

Hero (t5600)
Button (t2350)
SB (t2150)
BB (t3400)

...than the way they are if you just fold.
blinds 200/400
Hero (t7000)
Button (t2350)
SB (t2150)
BB (t2000)

I prefer three short stacks, rather than two short stacks and one medium stack on my right. Again we can argue, but I'm coming to the same conclusion I came to in the Indiana thread. Under ideal circumstances, this will break even. If you're the least bit off, things get way worse very quickly.
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