[MrWookie]

He was flopping her around, yes, but that was the point. She was supposed to be a doll.

OK, so, here's why I think Marie will win. Marie finished in third place w/ the judges. Helio finished in second, and Mel in first. The most likely scenario for votes I think will be just the opposite: Marie in first, Helio second, and Mel in third. Helio was certainly getting the crowd more worked up than Mel was. Since the final score is based only on the ranking, this would leave all three dancers in essentially a tie. In the event of a tie, the audience score counts more, so this means Marie will win, Helio second, and Mel third. Now, there are some things that could change this:

1. Most notably, I guess they're eliminating third place before the final dance. Only the top two couples will dance their third routine tonight. I can't for the life of me figure out if there is any way for this last dance to change anything if the third place dancer is eliminated. Let's assume I'm right, and that Mel is eliminated third. Then what? Does Helio get the top spot by the judges, since he'll probably have 80-some points compared to Mel, who gets left in the dust with just 55? Well, that'd be nice, but by that same reasoning, then, Marie will get the second spot with 70-some points, so her first place votes will still trump Helio's second place votes. And heck, if Helio were to just go out and do the funky chicken for a minute and a half instead of doing a real dance to let Marie pass him up, well, it wouldn't change much. Marie would still win. The only way it might change things is if...

2. Helio pulls the huge upset and gets first place votes. If he pulls that off, all will be fair and just in the world. Helio will win, Mel will come in second, and Marie will finish in third. In this scenario, though, the third dance still doesn't count, since Helio can go out and do a minute and a half of the funky chicken again and his first place votes will be enough to carry him to victory.

3. Mel pulls the even bigger upset and gets second place votes over Helio. This will be like scenario 1, except Helio gets knocked out third and Mel does the funky chicken. I think this would be a pretty big upset since Helio looked so good last night and since he's never been in the bottom two.

4. Mel pulls the upset of all upsets and gets first place votes. In that scenario, Mel wins whether or not she does the funky chicken, Helio gets second, and Marie is once again third.

If Helio had gotten that third 10 from Carrie Ann, we wouldn't be having this conversation, then he'd have first place judges and second place votes, which is what Drew Lachey had to beat out Jerry Rice. This time, though, since I don't think the person who's at the top of the judges' board will get second place votes, it's the perfect storm that will allow Marie to win. Alternatively, if all three dancers danced the final dance, then if Helio passed up Mel, we'd once again have Marie finishing second. I think that eliminating third place before they dance their last dance essentially creates a two-man final that allows the worst dancer to win easily.

Heh. You'll like this, Katy. I was looking at Wikipedia to verify the scores, and I came across a little gem from Max. Apparently on the show Extra, he went on the record before the finale to say “Frankly, I think there were a lot of other people better than Marie.”