[DcifrThs]

SC

you said:

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Lastly, do you agree that economists (that was my major) are "non experts" as described in the Black Swan and basically worthless, particularly as it relates to prediction (I subscribe to this belief, FWIW).

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i've finally read enough of black swan to feel like i can answer this question.

first i guess it depends what you consider an economist. while at the DoL i was titled an "economist" but i was tasked with the analysis of health care & pension coverage of US citizens. i wasn't trying to predict anything.

some economists are only concerned with small areas that belong to mediocristan (# of immigrants in a given year, or annual increase in labor force) that can be predicted fairly well.

others, fall victim to their own conceit (As NNT predicts) in trying to predict the level of the DOW or the price of gold or the level of inflation years out on the curve.

those guys & gals are doomed to repeat the mistakes of their predecessors. but it isn't their fault imo. the demand for their (histerically wrong) predictions seems to only INCREASE!!

so they are worthless as far as prediction is concerned.

further, i think you just fell victim to the platonization of the problem you stated (and one of the main things NNT tries to move the reader away from). you said you believe economists are worthless as predictors...but there are economists who are great at predicting their small area as their area may not be in extremistan (at the risk of falling victim to catagorizing things myself...but NNT tries to at least separate the types of these things: those in which one massive extreme CAN overtake all other measurements-extremistan- and those in which one massive extreme is just a drop in the bucket and makes a very small difference overall-mediocristan)

finally, the definition of "expert" above may be too narrow. i'm sure all economists are "experts" by the definition ascribed to them by their employers, but fail in predictions (they bring revenues & respect or whatever to their employers though their products may fall short). one such person i feel is horrible at this area is "legendary" bill gross. he is a "bond bull" that very recently turned "bearish." he turned "bearish" only AFTER the biggest upward swing in 10yr yields that many like MS, JPM, my former employer, and thus myself have thought very likely for some time.

but the mkt still thinks bill gross is an expert b/c he runs a profitable and highly desired company, or whatever it is (PIMCO). oh...and when bill gross turned bearish, yields pared back by 10 bps (though i still agree w/ his current position that yields are generally now still headed up).

anyways, enough about micro rambling. i hope i asnweres your question.

thanks SC,
Barron