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Old 11-05-2007, 04:35 AM
Gonso Gonso is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2006
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Posts: 3,265
Default Re: Preflop odds to play speculative hands such as K3s

For me, no, it's absolutely not a call from the SB. In fact, a hand like K3s is pretty much one of the worst possible hands, esp from the SB. You have the absolute worst position, and you're pretty much playing for a king-high flush or a two pair +.

Okay, you'll hardly ever flop a flush outright. I forget how often it happens it's hundreds to one.

The chances flopping a flush draw -just a draw- is like 10 or 11 percent, so that's pretty tough in and of itself. Then, sometimes the board will be paired which reduces the value of your hand.

But let's say you flop a clean flush draw. Now you have to choose between betting into several players, or checking. Sometimes you'll have to check-fold, other times you might check-raise and commit a lot of money to a draw, if you check-call you might as well just show your flush draw. These are problems with your position more than your hand, of course, but still.

Then, when all is said and done, IF you hit your flush, you still have to get your money's worth. Which is hard to do since it will usually be hard to keep your draw hidden. Finally you will occasionally feel the horror of going through all those hoops just to stack off to a guy who fills up on the river holding a little equity with a set, the A of your suit hitting a fourth suit on the board, or just A7s trapping you.

Making a big 3-bet here to take it down will work often enough against certain tables, and every now and again I do just that in limpy pots like this if my image is good, at least then you can cut down the field and rep a legit hand on later streets. I think folding here is the best choice the majority of the time though, and I hate calling, even getting 10-to-1 or something. As good as those odds sound, you're going to have such a hard time extracting any value out of that spot.
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