Re: uh-oh
MP has been telegraphing the whole hand that he hates calling to the river, but he's going to do it, dammit.
If the SB is making a move with QJ (no flush) it's really really strong against you, because what else could he have but QJ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]? You have to fold. So, good bluff . . . except, no, because MP is not going to fold the river getting 16:1 and being last to act.
From his point of view, the chance you fold KT or a set is probably in the 25% range, and the chance that Mr. I'm Calling Down With AK Dammit folds is 25%. 1/16 . . . so his bluff works 1/16 times. Probably not -EV, maybe those percentages are a little low, but because he could actually be ahead with his QJ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], you aren't getting odds to call.
I'm kidding, of course. I could never fold on the river getting 16:1 when I have a set. But mathematically, given MP is obviously a stubborn ass, it seems like a fold is in order.
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