Re: Variance Problem
A quick approximation of Paxinor's thread is to figure, in BB, the downswing ur interested (2000), divide by STDDEV/1000 (147BB), and square the result, which will approximate k number of hands. For example, a 20+ downswing should be expected (95% confidence) every (2000/147)Sq.* k # of hands or 13.605sq k hands = approx 185k hands. Therefore, can expect 10+ downturn every 46k, 15+ every 104k and 20+ every 185k or about 2 times a year at your rate of play.
I dont know how to answer your question # 2) since it seems like it would be highly dependent on how many hands it took to suffer the first 20+ downturn. By my approximation method, one could expect a 40+ downturn every 740,000 hands (about 1 time every 2 years at your rate of play). In fact, I just suffered a 40.62BB downturn over 128k hands - so it happens!!!! And, believe me, its no fun.
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