Re: Terrible money bubble spot in 100r
My analysis is that hero has about a 22% of winning the hand if he calls and about a 57% chance someone busts if he folds.
If hero folds, his expectation is about $1.1K when the raiser busts. When the raiser wins, hero can call in the SB or fold and hope someone busts before he is anted out. Let's say his expectation is $400 when the raiser wins. So his overall expectation is about $800 by folding.
If we assume hero's expectation is $3K when he wins the hand, his expectation is $660 by calling.
So I would say this is a fold, but I would call with any ace, any pp, any suited connector, all but the worst kings, and some other high card hands and suited gappers.
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