[bobneptune]

[ QUOTE ]
If hero folds they still have a non-zero chance of cashing. Saying it's zero is really innaccurate, you just have to double up one or two times to get back in it, or hope for a bust on another table in the next few hands, all of which is very possible.

[/ QUOTE ]


without question, you are correct that my assuming hero has zero chance to cash if left with 1800 chips. is not precise. clearly, he has some chance to cash , even with 11% of the shortest stack left in the tourney. i used zero to simplify the math.

realistically, does hero have a 10% chance to cash w/1800 chips.... maybe , on a good day. if so the crux of the math is reasonably valid.

my attempt here was to show that the intuitive reasoning of fold was probably correct, but had hero's stack been just a little larger (where winning would give him a stack ~22,000) then he would have a reasonable chance to reach the $1,807 in equity he needed to make calling a reasonable option.