[bobneptune]

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so, if i didn't unmercifully bollox this math up, if apestyles calls and the 20% of the time his hand holds up, if he can win $1,807.44 with the 16,329 chips he has, then calling is just as good as folding.

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Good job on the analysis. That's exactly how you should analyze the situation (we can debate ranges, but the process is right).

The only process mistake you make is highlighted above. The question isn't whether he CAN win that much with the amount of chips he has, it's WILL he win that much ON AVERAGE. 'Can' implies whether it's possible, and it certainly is...but the amount he will win on average with that stack is approximately his ICM equity and that should be much less than the number you posted (but requires payouts to actually calculate).

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without question, you are correct that the question really is how will he do if he calls.

i think this question is quite interesting as it brings more factors into play that are on the surface. for instance, how does hero evaluate his skillset against the remaining players ? what are the distribution of the remaining stacks? what is the payout structure?

in a situation such as this, which looks like a very easy fold, an above average player if he had an additional 1500 chips might be correct in calling. had he 7300 chips rather than ~ 5800, this might be a reasonable call and that's sort of counter-intuitive.