[Confused1]

[ QUOTE ]
so, if i didn't unmercifully bollox this math up, if apestyles calls and the 20% of the time his hand holds up, if he can win $1,807.44 with the 16,329 chips he has, then calling is just as good as folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good job on the analysis. That's exactly how you should analyze the situation (we can debate ranges, but the process is right).

The only process mistake you make is highlighted above. The question isn't whether he CAN win that much with the amount of chips he has, it's WILL he win that much ON AVERAGE. 'Can' implies whether it's possible, and it certainly is...but the amount he will win on average with that stack is approximately his ICM equity and that should be much less than the number you posted (but requires payouts to actually calculate).