Re: J9s on the river
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Cartman,
I don't think it is safe to assume that he will never fire a 3rd barrel with a worse hand.
Surf
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Against most players I agree, but this guy had checked behind on the river repeatedly with his Ace high and busted draw type hands as well as giving up on the turn heads up and folding to a river bet a few times after raising preflop. That history made me feel like I could trust him more. Also, although I agree that assumption was optimistic, the assumption that he has 10 outs when behind is very pessimistic. The calculation that I presented above is anything but solid and you guys may be right, I was just attempting to demonstrate that the turn and river bet are separate decisions here and that calling the turn in no way makes calling the river imperative. Also, the willingness to fold the river if he fires again does not by definition make the turn call incorrect. This players hand range changes dramatically when he makes that river bet.
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