OT: Sports 7 Game Playoff Probabilities
Hey guys,
This isn't poker, but I figured this would be the best place to ask this question. I haven't taken probability in forever, but I'd like some help with the formula for figuring out what the probability of a team winning a 7 game series is at any point if I were to assign them a certain chance to win each game?
Probably as the best example of what I want relates to the current NHL Finals. Anaheim is up 2-0. Ottawa needs to win 4 out of the next 5 to win the Cup. They have 3 home games and 2 road games left. If I say Ottawa has a 60% chance to win at home and a 40% chance to win on the road, what's the formula to get the probability of them winning 4 out of 5 games? If I remember correctly, the formula for 4 out of 4 would be just multiplying the probabilities together (.6*.4*.6*.4=.058). I'm just not sure how to factor in being able to lose one game...or even 2 or 3.
Thanks in advance for your help. I truly appreciate it.
|