Re: 666 flop
Hi Phil - Seems like there should be a way to tell whether an opponent has the missing six or not, and then play accordingly (meaning continue if nobody has the six and fold if somebody does).
But there isn't. Or at least I don't know of a way. Here's the problem:
It's overwhelmingly likely, when Hero is dealt AA22 and the flop is 666, that at least one of six other hands with which opponents see the flop will have a pair higher than sixes.
You can probably do the math better than I can. But if anybody doesn't believe me, just take a standard 52 card deck, remove three sixes + two aces + two deuces, shuffle the cards well and deal out six hands. See for yourself.
Shuffle up and deal again. And again. Do this about twenty times. It won't take you long to see for yourself. You'll find that overwhelmingly, at least one of those six four card hands will have a pair higher than sixes. (When you take those seven cards, 6-6-6-A-A-2-2, out of a deck it's amazing how likely other dealt hands are to have pairs)!
In a real game, whoever has a hand with a pair higher than sixes will hope nobody else has a hand with the missing six. If only a few people see the flop, maybe someone with a pair lower than sixes, or maybe someone with any hand at all, will try to steal the pot.
Anybody with the missing six may decide to slow play or may bet. That same person with a pair higher than sixes may decide to check or bet.
I'll agree that some opponents are more likely to bet when they have the six than not. And some opponents who slow play the quad sixes are more likely to bet a pair (without the six) than not.
A card-stupid Tricky Dicky is more likely not to have the hand he represents when he bets. But everyone holding a hand with a pair has made a full house. If Tricky Dicky is truly card-stupid, then he may think his full house is a good hand.
A card-stupid Honest Abe is more likely to bet a hand containing the six, but also may think a full house is good here and thus may bet with or without the six.
And card-smart players are damned hard to read. Poker is a game of deception, and some of your opponents are damned good at it - regular con-men. Some of my regular opponents could steal your eye teeth. I mean they're good at deception.
However, the only way you can be drawn into their plot is by trying to read them. By deciding to stick this hand/flop out to the showdown, you take away their skills at deception.
In a fixed limit game, the most somebody can bet is whatever the limit is each round. Pot limit is much different.
I have admittedly over-simplified. For example, what is Hero to do if there is a bet, a raise, and a re-raise before the action gets to Hero? (However, that wasn't the scenario presented by Olrik, the opening poster in this thread).
Buzz
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