Re: 666 flop
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One other point on the flop is that you could be outdrawn by someone holding an overpair, so it may be a bad idea to give a free card.
[/ QUOTE ]Hi Brian – Very good point.
Hero doesn’t want to give an opponent a free roll to beat him.
At least one opponent out of the six who were dealt cards and saw the flop will have one pair higher than sixes almost all of the time. Hero is (obviously) a favorite against such a hand. If an opponent has a hand with all four cards higher than a six, a hand such as KKQJ, then Villain will make quads or end up with a better full house roughly 81 times out of 820. Villain with such a hand, when Hero also has AA22, will still lose to quad sixes roughly two times out of five, and ends up winning roughly 4.6%, as simulated.
Hero still wins often enough so that folding is not an option.
A Villain with two higher pairs is more of a threat. If Hero peeked in one opponent’s hand and saw KKQQ, with five other unknown opponents who could have a six, then Hero would do best to fold. But that will only happen somewhere in the neighborhood of 3%. The other 97%, almost all of it, Hero will be up against at least one opponent who has a hand with a pair.
Hero is greatly favored over such a hand, but you’re correct that Hero doesn’t want such a hand to get a free draw to continue. If Hero allows such a hand do stay in the pot until the showdown, Hero will miss out on winning the 7 small bets already in the pot approximately 10%. The other 90%, assuming somebody with such a hand will call on the river, Hero will win an extra 2 small bets from such a hand.
2*.90-7*.10 = 1.80-.70 = +1.10 small bets.
Allowing an opponent a free card or not is a dilemma. But there’s not much Hero can do about it. If Hero bets immediately, he probably loses his customer with one over-pair. Hero still loses to quad sixes approximately half of the time, and assuming he gets raised and then faces a bet on the third and fourth betting round, he ends up losing more than he wins by not betting on the second betting round.
It’s the loss of a paying customer combined with paying more to someone with a six that hurts Hero. It’s similar to (but not exactly the same as) pulling with some nut hands, not making it too expensive, even though there is a remote chance an opponent might draw out on you.
Buzz
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