Re: Here\'s The Situation
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But if you miss the 2 point conversion you can't tie the game with a field goal!
Edit: I will concede that a safety gives us the tie if we convert. Now I see why you think we need a good defense to go for this, but that also requires a good kick-off, so we do in fact need a good kicker.
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Ben, at first I thought your post was playful/sarcastic. But your edit seems to say that you were serious. DS's point is that the emotional response of [ QUOTE ]
But if you miss the 2 point conversion you can't tie the game with a field goal!
[/ QUOTE ] is misleading. Even if you tie the game with an FG, you're still a dog to win the game (assuming some time has been left on the clock). Whereas, if you go for two, 50% of the time you'll be in position to take a 65-75% edge.
I hate it when posters don't do their own math. How many times have I posted, "So you think he should 3bet. Great. I was so curious what XXX thought the OP should do here. XXX says 3bet. Sadly, XXX you've left it up to us to figure out why." If you have a theory post your arguments for it.
OK, we've scored to make the score 23-27 and we have the option of going for 2, converting 50% of the time, or kicking for 1, converting 100% of the time. There is 5min left, and for us to be considering a win, there will be 2-3 more possessions in the game.
We kick the ball off and pray for defense. Our defense holds them to no score 65%. They get a FG 25%, a TD 10%. The TD% is meaningless as it means other team wins whether we're down 2,3,4. The FG% is very meaningful as its value has been greatly effected by our strategy decisions. If we had been down 2 or 3, the FG puts us down 5,6 - a TD wins it for us. If we we're down 4, a FG makes our TD only tie the game with a 7pt TD. So this is the first question. What is the FG% when we give them the ball back?
But we have stellar defense and they go 3 and out. We take 3-4 min to go down the field and score. we were down:
2: a FG gives us a 65% win. A TD gives us a 75% win.
3: a FG gives us a .65(chance other team scores) x .5(win in OT) = 33% win. A TD gives us a 75% win. Which leads to the next question - When down by 3, how often do we score a TD as opposed to a FG?
4: we've been given an extra down instead of a FGA. The extra down results in an eventual TD, (this is our third question: how often does the extra down lead to a TD) lets say 20% of the time. That TD gives us a win 65%, a tie 20%, a loss 15%, so a 75% win 20% of the time. A 15% win when down by 4.
Our defense allows a FG and we get the ball back down:
5: win 25%
6: win 25%
7: win 12.5%
So we do need to remember that our gamble will cost us if we then allow a FG. How much it costs us depends on how often the other team scores a FG, leaving us enough time for a drive.
So we have 3 rather important variables to consider before making the final calculations:
1. What is the FG% when we give them the ball back?
2. When down by 3, how often do we score a TD as opposed to a FG?
3. When forced to go for a TD instead of kicking it on 4th down, how often does the extra down lead to a TD?
Of course that's not even all the extra variables we've added. There is additional value to knowing you only need a FG to win - you can run out the clock before setting up the FG. It feels like there are too many variables here to come up with a sound mathematical answer. Guesstimate final numbers have it as a 54% win if we kick the extra point, and a 45% win if we go for two when down 4. This ignores the value gained from being able to run the clock before setting up for game winning FG. Also ignores the cost of being down 7 when 2pt fails and they get a FG. Questions 2 and 3 have the greatest effect on estimates. Of course, all this is predicated on the DS's notion that the other team WILL get the ball back for that final drive. I think my numbers have been unfair to DS because of this. Being down 2 gives us a great chance of kicking the game-winning FG as time expires.
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