Re: Trips in limped pot getting heavy action XXX (NL 25)
If we call:
AJ - AT 24 combos we lose (20%)
A9 - A2 96 combos we split (80%)
We have invested $5 on the flop.
On the turn I assume we will be all-in on the river. (Half pot river bet)
So 20% of time we invest $20 and lose.
80% we invest $20 and win $5 (we/re calling to protect our portion of the current $10 pot).
.2(-$20) + .8($5) = -4 + 4 = $0 EV
If there is any chance he holds AQ, AK, KK, or TT it makes it -EV. I'm sure an argument can be made that he'd likely raise preflop with the better hands, AT+, TT, KK, but it's still going to be around 0 EV. I'd rather not risk my stack for an EV of 0. Anyone see any issue with this math?
Edit: I see already I need to account for one less 7 and one less T, but otherwise this should be correct.
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