Re: NL 25 - AQs facing reraise
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What happened was myself and MP3 checked flop and villain bet $4 (just under half pot). At this point I figure I'm almost certainly looking at AK so I fold.
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Sigh...
Don't call pf if you aren't even going to call a 1/2-pot bet when you hit your ace...
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SABR42 is right. If you check the flop, he'll probably cb with all of his hands QQ-AA/AK. Interestingly, there are 50% of the hands in his range that you beat, and 50% that you don't. There are 8 combinations of AK, 1 of AA, 3 of QQ, and 6 of KK. That's 9 combinations you beat, and 9 that you don't. And if you check the flop, then ALL of them will usually cb.
So, c/c the flop, and then c/f the turn might be best if you think QQ and KK will shut down once their cb gets called.
But c/f on the flop is not good. You are ahead about 50% of the time, and if you don't lead (which would be my preferred line), then at least check/call, or maybe even check-raise to $9 and go away if he doesn't fold.
In fact, given his weak $4 cb, a c/r to $9 and giving up if he doesn't fold might be a good line.
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