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Old 05-01-2007, 04:20 AM
IFeltYourRack IFeltYourRack is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 50
Default Re: $20NL River Spew with Flush draw

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I suppose what I want to learn here is how to identify good spots to bluff...

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This is pretty bad. You're basically spraying and praying.

Quick basics:

1. Any bluff begins with putting villain on a range. Without doing this you're just shooting in the dark and hoping he doesn't call. If the likely hands he is holding are calling your bet then it's probably prudent not to attempt a bluff. The tighter the range you can put him on the easier your decision becomes.

2. You need to be aware of the hand your representing and make sure the story you're telling makes sense. In other words, your bluff needs to be believable.

3. To get an opponent to fold, you need fold equity. The better the odds are the more correct it becomes for someone to call you.

Now look at your bluff. You didn't put villain on a range. Sure you said he could have a PP or be on a draw, but the fact of the matter is that he could have a lot of different hands. What you need to be concerned about is what are the most logical hands he could have. Until you can do that with some confidence, I wouldn't even worry about bluffing. I'd instead focus on improving my hand reading ability.

Now think about what hands you could be respresenting. By the river, if I was villain, Qx or a draw seem the most likely hands you can have. Besides a gutshot no draws are completed on the turn and none are completed on the river. So villain doesn't have to be concerned with that. I wouldn't be worried about an over pair either since you limped PF. So if villain has a Q himself he's probably only going to be worried about either being out kicked that you might have rivered two pair. That also leads into the third point.

Even if villain has a weak queen he has well over 1/2 his stack committed and is getting ~4:1 on a call. Since it's hard to put you on much of a hand and the fact that so many people do crazy things at these limits, I very rarely see him folding a pair of Q's or better.


That's just a quick analysis but it should give you a general idea of how you should be thinking.
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